The SdJ Prediction Challenge – Second Update

The participants in our Opinionated Gamers SdJ Prediction Challenge anxiously await the news about which games will come home with an award, so that our friendly deathmatch can be resolved.  In the meantime, I asked the entire group for updated predictions, now that we know what the nominees are.  Just for a sweetener, each correct pick will add 2 points to their overall total.

20 people responded, enough to draw some conclusions.  According to the Opinionated Gamers:

  • The SdJ is up for grabs, and any of the three nominated games could wind up as the winner.
  • The Kennerspiel is all over but the shouting:  it’ll be 7 Wonders in a walk.

The vote couldn’t be more decisive with regard to the second point.  All 20 of the responders picked 7 Wonders as the winner of the first Kennerspiel des Jahres.  Believe me, I haven’t seen that many of us agree on something since Dale offered to pick up the check at our Gathering luncheon!

It’s a much tighter vote for the SdJ.  By the narrowest of margins, we declare Forbidden Island to be our favorite, with 8 of the 20 votes.  Asara is right behind, with 7 votes.  And even in third place, Qwirkle got some solid support, with 5 votes.

Here is the list of who voted for which SdJ nominated game, for those scoring at home.

Forbidden Island:  Jeff Allers, Erik Arneson, Jonathan Degann, Jonathan Franklin, Doug Garrett, Luke Hedgren, Mark Jackson, Tom Rosen

Asara:  Joe Huber, Brian Leet, Larry Levy, Liga, James Miller, Greg Schloesser, Rick Thornquist

Qwirkle:  Ted Alspach, Matt Carlson, John Palagyi, Mary Prasad, Dale Yu

Keep checking this spot for more SdJ-related articles.  We’ve got a few planned we think you will like.

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9 Responses to The SdJ Prediction Challenge – Second Update

  1. jeffinberlin says:

    Yeah, Qwirkle is still my 1-star nominations pick remaining, but I went ahead and switched the bonus pick to Forbidden Island, since I like the game so much and this might be the best opportunity yet for a cooperative game to get the prize. I think it’s a toss-up between those two.

  2. Tom Rosen says:

    My thinking was that it finally had to be Matt Leacock’s turn. And the production values and price point for Forbidden Island have got to be attractive as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if either of the other two win, it’s a closer contest than in years past to be sure, but at least the competition seems less stiff than Matt faced in 2009.

    Well won’t we all look silly if Lancaster or Strasbourg shock the world!

    • jeffinberlin says:

      And don’t forget that the German release of Forbidden Island has some nice painted miniatures instead of wooden pawns (though no tin box).

  3. Larry Levy says:

    I hear ya, Tom. But I also think that giving Kramer a sixth award (and his first in a decade) as he nears age 70 would be a pretty amazing story as well.

    As for the unlikelihood of Lancaster or Strasbourg winning, I only have two words for you: Villa Paletti!

  4. Dale Yu says:

    Larry – I don’t buy the idea that the “compelling story” sways the jury. Neither does the idea that s0-an-so is “due” to win. If so, Herr Knizia would have won long ago. So would Susan Lucci for that matter.

    And FWIW, though I chose 7 Wonders like everyone else in our group, I was actually pretty close to choosing Strasbourg. I gather that I like it a bit more than you . I wish that I had had a chance to try Lancaster – though word from Rajive on BGG is that it should reach American shores (and stores) in the next week or so.


  5. Larry Levy says:

    I tend to agree, Dale, although one can never predict how subconscious concepts will affect one’s judgment. I’m merely pointing out that there are “compelling stories” behind all three nominated games. (If Qwirkle wins, it would make Susan Ross the first female solo designer to take home the award.)

    I imagine I’ll give Strasbourg another try sometime. But yeah, really didn’t like that first game.

  6. Jonathan D says:

    There seemed to be higher expectations for Asara, I think because it is more like a regular Euro (and originally published in Germany by German designers). Partly to be contrarian, I chose Forbidden Island. It turned out that, without mine, both games had seven votes, so it made no difference.

  7. Valerie Putman says:

    I didn’t get my picks in on time for the article, but I will go with Asara and 7 Wonders.

  8. Thygra says:

    I just want to add one reason against Asara: If Asara would be chosen, most people would not understand the difference between the SdJ and KedJ, because Asara and 7 Wonders are very close together. I think the jury will pick Qwirkle or Forbidden City, because there would be a more visible difference between both prices.

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