28th place with a score of 195: Kingdom Builder – 9.48% and The Settlers of Catan – 8.82%

“score” is computed by giving a game 5 points for each person playing it 5-9 times and 10 points for each person playing 10+ times

the percentage numbers for each year are the percent of respondents who reported playing the game 5+ or 10+ times

It’s year #14 – and for a variety of reasons ( I blame the economy, global warming and the release of a bunch of new Munchkin expansions – not necessarily in that order) the response numbers were down this year – 306 of you let me know what you’ve been playing (a lot).

Games that dropped out of the top 25 this year:

• The Settlers of Catan (now at #28)
• Pandemic (now at #30)
• Coloretto (now at #35)
• Lost Cities (now at #35)
• Puerto Rico (now at #50)
• Hansa Teutonica (now at #39)
• Ingenious (now at #47)

Well, it’s the end of an era… this is the first time since I started collecting the Five & Dime numbers that The Settlers of Catan has fallen out of the top 25. Let’s all observe a moment of silence, shall we?

OK, the moment is past. And with that, it’s good to note that the former 900 lb. gorilla missed the top 25 by one place.

In 2009 & 2010, the top five games were the same: Dominion, Race for the Galaxy, Pandemic, Roll through the Ages & Agricola. I predicted (correctly!) that Agricola & Roll Through the Ages would leave the top five but not the top 25… but I completely missed Pandemic dropping (in part due to the second expansion not coming out until – probably – late 2012.)

Three years ago, I called “jump the shark” on Carcassonne – and yet it has managed to stick around despite my dire prediction. Last year I modified my prediction (“it’ll hang in for at least one more year”) and was correct – this time.

My yearly attempt to predict what WON’T return was half right: I was sure Dixit & Forbidden Island were on there way out… and yet, not so much. Meanwhile, I hesitantly included Hansa Teutonica & Ingenious… both which dropped like stones. Go figure.

For next year, I 85.6% sure that Quarriors! will leave the top 25… and while I was pleasantly surprised to see my favorite game system (ever!) skate in – Memoir ’44 – I don’t think it will be there next year. Round that out with Dixit & Forbidden Island leaving (like I predicted LAST time)… we’ll see if the second time/guess is the charm.

I always list a set of “big questions for the year”… here is one question from (hit the Wayback Machine) 2010 that’s become relevant again:

• Q: Who’s got 2010 in the Dead Pool for Settlers? Will it finally drop off the Top 25? My guess: no – but we may finally be closing in on that in 2011 or 2012. (That makes me sad, btw.)
• A: Settlers is only down 1 percentage point… which I think means it won’t drop off the top 25 in 2011.

So here’s the answers to the 2011 questions:

• Q: Will 7 Wonders have enough “oomph” to break into the top 5? I think the answer is probably “yes,” aided by the release later this year of the Leaders expansion.
• A: 7 Wonders had nothing but “oomph”, rocketing to #1 with a bullet. The addition of the Cities expansion (including team rules) ought to keep it in the top 5 in 2012.
• Q: Can any of the other deck-building games join Dominion & Thunderstone in the top 25? I think not.
• A: My Magic 8-Ball was broken last year… both Ascension: Chronicles of the Godslayer and Quarriors! (which is a dice-building game, but it counts) managed to reach the top 25.
• Q: I’m a big fan of Summoner Wars… and I’m predicting that the release of the Master Set this summer will give it the push it needs to reach the top 25. Agree or disagree?
• A: The printing issues that plagued Plaid Hat Games last spring probably doomed my prediction – it didn’t make it.
• Q: I don’t see much on the horizon that looks like it will crack the Top 25 – so how many returnees will we have? I’ll take 20 in our imaginary pool.
• A: The actual answer was 18. (which was predicted correctly by OG contributor Brian Leet!)

The big questions for 2012:

• Can The Settlers of Catan return? I think the answer is yes – but just barely.
• What about this crop of back catalog games that are coming: Merchants of Venus, Wiz War, Netrunner, Nexus Ops, Fortress America, Ogre, etc. – will any of them crack the top 25? In short, no. (They’re all niche market games.)
• What about Kickstarter… what will be the first Kickstarter game to get here? The closest is Eminent Domain (currently at #31).
• Once again, I don’t see much movement likely in the top 25 – I’ll guess 20 returnees again this year.

In fact, what do you think about any of this? Use the comments area (and keep it clean & friendly!)